It appears that health care spending as a share of GDP has leveled off. While reaching close to 20% of GDP during the pandemic, 2022 had health care spending (17.3% of GDP) more in line with pre-pandemic norms. Hartman et al. (2023) reports:
Health care spending in the US grew 4.1 percent to reach $4.5 trillion in 2022, which was still a faster rate of growth than the increase of 3.2 percent in 2021 but was much slower than the rate of 10.6 percent seen in 2020. In 2022, strong Medicaid and private health insurance spending growth, including a turnaround in the net cost of insurance, was somewhat offset by continued declines in federal spending associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The insured share of the population reached a historic high of 92.0 percent in 2022 as enrollment in private health insurance increased at a faster rate relative to 2021 and Medicaid enrollment continued to experience strong growth. The share of the economy accounted for by the health sector was 17.3 percent in 2022, which was down from a peak of 19.5 percent in 2020 but was more consistent with the average share of 17.5 percent during 2016–19.
Pharmaceutical spending as a share of total health care spending has been relatively constant at around 9% throughout the past 7 years.
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